Global Order Upended

Qaisar Shareef is the author of When Tribesmen Came Calling: Building an Enduring American Business in Pakistan, published by Blue Ear Books. His columns in the Pakistani national English-language newspaper The News, explaining American politics and society to readers in Pakistan, are archived here.

Over the past several decades, there have been a few years that stand out for having an impact that resonates for many years to come. One was 2001, when Americans’ view of threats faced by their country was fundamentally altered. The financial crisis of 2008-09 devastated the U.S. and global economies for years to come.

2022 will go down in history for shaking the established global security order to its core. What was believed to be the post-World War II era of stability and security is no more. It was broadly accepted that the age of major wars, particularly ones that sought to change national borders, was in the past.

The relative security of the post-World War II era had put countries, and particularly industrial economies of Europe, into a false sense of security. Despite repeated urgings by the United States, wealthy European countries, particularly members of the NATO alliance, had little interest in spending 2 percent of their GDP on defense, as stipulated by the treaty. While the U.S. continued to overinvest in defense, Europeans were happy to spend on their welfare state, providing for education, infrastructure and healthcare beyond what the U.S. has been willing to do.

This relative calm came crashing down as the Russian military marched into Ukraine in February. While Russia had been nibbling away at sovereign Ukrainian territory since 2014, the West had largely neglected it, treating them as minor incursions. It is no longer possible to ignore Russian actions aimed at erasing the entire Ukrainian state.  

While the U.S. has approved large sums in military aid to Ukraine, Olaf Scholz, chancellor of Germany, has announced an additional €100 billion in German defense spending. In fact, no major country in the world can ignore any more the risks from potential adversaries.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has also rapidly altered global alliances. The U.S. has led the charge to heavily sanction the Russian economy, with the hopes of crippling it. But, much to the West’s disappointment, too many countries in the world, including in Europe, have been dependent on Russian oil and gas as well as grains and fertilizer from Ukraine. Turns out these two countries were supplying a lot more to the world than most may have realized.

The war has also impacted the fortunes of countries near and far. While Europe has suffered greatly from a spike in energy prices, others in the Middle East and elsewhere have been on the receiving end of capital fleeing Russia under the threat of sanctions. India has openly flouted U.S.-led sanctions on Russian energy, benefitting from importing deeply discounted Russian oil. It is said that even some oil-rich countries in the Middle East have received deeply discounted Russian oil, only to resell it on global markets.

The world is seeing limitations of sanctions on a country whose products are in demand. While most countries have been forced to choose sides between the democratic West and authoritarian Russia and China, some have managed to play both sides, as India appears to have masterfully done.

Even as the world was reeling from the effects of the Russian invasion, the U.S. was dealing with internal threats to its own democracy. A former president was refusing to accept the results of the elections he lost two years ago. The results of the U.S. midterm elections held in November brought a little relief to the worst fears of the public. Most of the candidates with extremist, antidemocratic views lost. It appears Trump’s political influence is also diminished.

Among the many factors influencing U.S. election results was a decision by the Supreme Court to reverse five-decades-old decisions affirming a woman's constitutional right to an abortion, at least in the early weeks of pregnancy. Regardless of how one feels about the right to an abortion, the Supreme Court’s willingness to reverse what was considered ‘settled law’ has created deep anxiety among many sectors of U.S. society. There is fear as to what rights this activist court may go after next.

Beyond politics, the financial markets in the U.S. had one of their worst years ever. Broad-based stock market indices lost about 20 percent of their value in 2022, wiping out trillions in financial wealth. And high-flying technology stocks such as Amazon, Facebook and Tesla lost more than 50 percent of their value. The aura of tech billionaires lost much of its shine, as many of them were exposed to be not necessarily so bright. Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg has learned the “Metaverse” may not be a winning bet yet.  Tesla owner Elon Musk bought Twitter for $44 billion and quickly learned managing a global social media company may be more complicated than firing rockets into space.

And, with the collapse of one of the major crypto exchanges, the world has started to wonder whether a totally unregulated asset with no particular use other than money laundering and crime is worth banking on after all.

In other parts of the world, Taliban 2.0 proved yet again how repressive and hateful their ideology is towards all women. It is sad to see a country of 38 million being abused by a band of warlords.

In another alarming development, Israel just swore in a government dominated by extreme rightwing figures. A person who was indicted for racist crimes against Arabs has been appointed minister for security. What could really go wrong?

As the world moves into 2023, the effects of the crises spawned in 2022 may stay with us for years to come.

Qaisar Shareef is the author of When Tribesmen Came Calling: Building an Enduring American Business in Pakistan, published by Blue Ear Books. His columns in the Pakistani national English-language newspaper The News, explaining American politics and society to readers in Pakistan, are archived here.